GSCASS（小院）论坛预告

时间：2016年11月1日14：00-17：00

地点：中国社会科学院研究生院教学楼120教室（地铁房山线广阳城站A1口出）

论文报告一：“Long Run Impacts of Wars”

作者：WeiHuang、LintongLi

报告时间：14：00-15：30

报告人：LintongLi

Abstract: It is widelybelieved that the wars in the middle of last century have shaped politics,economies and cultures in current world. However, because of data limitation,the evidence on the long-run effects of the wars is rather thin. This paperaims to bridge the gap by investigating the effects of exposure to the wars inearly life on the outcomes in the lifetime.

We try to answer the question by combing over 100large-scale battles (i.e. evolved troop > 10 thousand) during 1926-1950 tothe largest on-going survey data collected after 2010 (i.e., China Health andRetirement Studies and China Family Panel Studies). We carefully collectdetailed time and geographic information of the wars during the period and findthere is a large variation across provinces over time. In addition, WW2 killedthe most people among the countries involved and most of the battles happenedinvoluntarily (e.g., Japan’s invasion). These facts make China a naturalsetting for the question.

We then use the individual birth provinces and birth yearsto match the information of the wars. In addition, we also match the warinformation to the individuals at different ages to allow differential impactsof wars at different age stages in early life.

First, we find women exposed to the war in-utero perioddisplayed worse self-reported health, lower cognition and poorer memory, whichsupports fetal origin hypothesis. In details, One-month additional wartimein-utero increases self-reported poor health by 1.1 percentage point.Consistent with previous literature (Almond and Currie, 2011), we do not findsignificant evidence for men.

In addition, wars lowered education attainment for both menand women. For women, one-month wartime during in-utero period decreases yearsof education by 0.12 and increases probability to be illiteracy by 1.1percentage point. And exposure to the war during adolescence period alsoreduces opportunity to go to school. For men, on year exposure to the warduring adolescence decreases around 0.15 years of education. Specifically, ourestimates suggest that years of schooling would increase 0.3 for men and 0.15for women on average, if there had been no war during 1925-1950, Consistently,we find number of primary schools and high schools decreases by around 30% duringthe wartime, indicating that educational infrastructure reduced to a state ofruin by war.

Finally, exposure to the wars in early life also worsenslabor a performance, especially for men growing up under the war times. Men whoexposed to the war during adolescence also presented more likelihood to do farmwork and have lower household labor income. Specifically, if there had been nowar, household labor income would increase by over 10% for men born during1925-1935.

Endogeneity issues include across-province migration and theselective births during the wars. For the former, we show that over 97% ofpeople were in the same province as their birth one when they were at 12,indicating cross-province migration should not drive our results. For thelatter, we include parent’s education as control and find it do not bringmaterial changes. Therefore, these results further justify our main findings.

作者简介：Wei Huangisa Post-doctoral Fellow in Aging and Health Economics at the NationalBureau of Economic Research. His main research studies public economics,labor economics, and health economics. He is interested in the topics suchas health, education, ethnicity, and China. Wei received his PhDin economics from Harvard University in 2016. He received an M.A in economicsfrom National School of Development at Peking University in 2011, and aB.A. in physics from School of Physics at Peking University in 2008.

Lintong Liis asenior undergraduate student with a double major in physics and economics atPeking University. Lintong Li used to be a research assistant for RichardFreeman at NBER from July 2015 to Aug 2016. He is interested in the topics suchas innovation, development and health.

论文报告二：“Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the EconomicSlump”

作者：Atif Mian, Kamalesh Rao, Amir Sufi

来源: TheQuarterly of Economics, 2013, 128(4):1687-1726.

报告时间：15：30-17：00

报告人：汪勇

Abstracts:We investigate the consumptionconsequences of the 2006–9 housing collapse using the highly unequal geographicdistribution of wealth losses across the United States. We estimate a largeelasticity of consumption with respect to housing net worth of 0.6 to 0.8,which soundly rejects the hypothesis of full consumption risk-sharing. Theaverage marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of housing wealth is 5–7 centswith substantial heterogeneity across ZIP codes. ZIP codes with poorer and morelevered households have a significantly higher MPC out of housing wealth. Inline with the MPC result, ZIP codes experiencing larger wealth losses,particularly those with poorer and more levered households, experience a largerreduction in credit limits, refinancing likelihood, and credit scores. Ourfindings highlight the role of debt and the geographic distribution of wealthshocks in explaining the large and unequal decline in consumption from 2006 to2009.

报告人简介：汪勇，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济所博士生，研究方向：宏观计量经济，曾在《中国软科学》、《宏观经济研究》期刊发表过相关论文。

中国社会科学院研究生院（GSCASS）小院论坛由中国社会科学院数技经所郑世林老师发起，每周二下午举办研讨，主要面向社科院研究生院硕士和博士研究生，欢迎国内外学者来报告工作论文，交流研究心得，同时热烈欢迎热爱经济学的师生前来参与讨论！

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